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Author Topic: 2010 Mission - Wx Planning  (Read 4919 times)
Dan
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« on: December 11, 2009, 04:42:51 AM »

I've been doing a little research to see if I can find an easier way to predict (generally) when the best time would be for launch...I'm focusing on June since that is what we've found in earlier research to be best for the launch site...One thing I was looking at was the effect (if any) of El Nino, which will be ending just before the June launch time (april/may 2010)...I was looking at previous El Nino events and tried to compare jet stream strengths and dates for the June 5-25 timeframes...I haven't seen anything definitive, except that during the month of June, there is always a "calm" period that lasts about 4 to 6 days (my definition of calm is no winds greater than 30 kts)...I also haven't looked at any jet stream maps from the timeframes (I'll work on finding them though) I'm just looking at the sounding data...This calm period in the June after an El Nino event has gotten steadily later and later since 1992...Since I only checked El Nino years, I will go back and check the rest of the years in case this is a general trend that has nothing to do with El Nino...One more trend I noticed was that at the end of the month, the wind speeds at 10-25mb start picking up to around 40-50 kts...don't know if that's significant but it will certainly have an impact on the balloon... Anyway, just wanted you to know what I've been working on lately...If I begin seeing trends, I will run the numbers on the balloon predictor and see what they look like...
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DaddyB
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« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2009, 05:15:22 AM »

Good idea.
The first week in June, this year, the prediction was recovery at about 8 to 10 miles north of Perry if we launched from Perry!

I just checked 300 mb and it is 100 kts from the West right now....

I will be interested to see what you find out.
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Dan
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« Reply #2 on: December 13, 2009, 03:39:31 AM »

Wow! This is turning into quite a job..Since I didn't see any correlation with the El Nino years, I am plotting distance and bearing from launch for June 1-25 in an Excel spreadsheet...I have 2005 done so far and will post my raw data as it comes so you can see what I'm working with...
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Dan
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« Reply #3 on: December 13, 2009, 06:32:41 AM »

Here's the spreadsheet.  I have 2005-2007 finished and have the data downloaded for 2008-09 (but it's getting late)...ND means No Data, which I used if there was (obviously) no data for that time period...I also ND'd the time periods that I thought didn't have sufficient data for a good balloon track...The datetime column is 2 digit date and 2 digit time (zulu) of the report, 0412 is 1200z on the 4th..
Also, in case you think it might be important, 2010 will be a 'follow El Nino' year...Previous ones were 1992, 1995, 1998 (strong El Nino year), 2003 and 2006...
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Dan
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« Reply #4 on: December 14, 2009, 12:23:06 AM »

The spreadsheet (link in the above post) now has all June data from 2005 to present...I ran the wind data from the date/time of the 2007 mission and calculated a possible landing site:

30 16 59.88N 84 06 33.39W

Dunno how close it would be but it might be a cool "Extreme Geocache" project if somebody was looking for something to do on a nice spring day...Probably not much left after two and a half years   Grin
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Larry
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« Reply #5 on: December 14, 2009, 02:16:52 AM »

hmmm...  I looked them coord's up on Google Maps, and it seems just a tad west of where we visually tracked it to.  It would be cool, though if it could be found. Wink
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DaddyB
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« Reply #6 on: December 15, 2009, 03:58:26 AM »

It looks like it was south of US98, right off the end of hwy 59.
We went down '59' a ways south of Wasissa and never did hear anything on the radio.  It is possible that if we had gone on down to '98' we might have heard the signal.
It looks like some pretty bad country, though.
Oh, well...
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Dan
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« Reply #7 on: December 15, 2009, 01:38:33 PM »

Well, if nothing else, here's yet another learning opportunity from 2007...bring along a laptop that we can download the current winds aloft with...just in case we lose touch...We might be able to get close enough to pick up the signal again at least...
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Cheryl
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« Reply #8 on: December 17, 2009, 04:29:06 AM »

There has been a lot of logging/construction/development around the Hwy 59/98 area in the last couple of years.  It's very possible it's been destroyed, but it would be fun to look.
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DaddyB
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« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2010, 02:43:31 AM »

I guess this comes under weather planning....

I just ran the prediction program with a launch from Thomasville, and it shows a predicted flight of 49 miles with the landing site about 20 mi NE of Valdosta...   Winds at 300 mb have been hanging out of the west at 30-50 kts...  Hope it slows down some before the 19th of June...   Undecided
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